Tourism Economics, a travel market research company, projects that international tourist arrivals to the U.S. will reach 67.9 million by the end of the year.
That number is notable in that it’s up from the 65.6 million visitors Tourism Economics predicted back in March. However, year-over-year visitation is down 2% as of August and is expected to be down 2.7% by the end of the year. Visitation in 2026, however, is estimated to grow by 4%. These and other numbers were shared via Brand USA this month.
Our Analysis: Inbound Travel Is a Stabilizing Force We Need
Traveler sentiment is dynamic — and political and economic uncertainty, plus a government shutdown, are bound to impact inbound visitation.
While the dip in 2025 tourist numbers has already had a significant economic impact, it is heartening to hear that a rebound is anticipated. According to Tourism Economics, major events in 2026, such as the FIFA World Cup, Route 66 Centennial and America's 250th birthday, are likely helping draw international interest.
Fast Facts: Inbound Visitation Is Predicted to Make a Comeback
- After this year’s 2.7% dip in inbound tourism, Tourism Economics expects inbound arrivals to grow at an annual rate of about 5%.
- By 2029, visitation numbers are expected to reach record levels — 81.9 million arrivals. That would surpass the 2018 record of 79.7 million visitors.
- Travelers from Europe account for 41% of total overseas arrivals, and that percentage is expected to hold steady through 2029.
- Inbound travel from Canada is down by 20%, and that change means that Canada is no longer the largest inbound market.
- Mexico has replaced Canada as the No. 1 market and is expected to remain so through 2029. Year over year, visitation from Mexico has increased 12% as of July 2025.
