International travel to the United States is projected to fall for the first time since 2020, according to a new forecast from the U.S. Travel Association, which warns that the decline — paired with the ongoing government shutdown — could cost billions of dollars and jeopardize thousands of American jobs.
According to the forecast, overall travel spending is expected to see little growth next year. Domestic travelers are projected to spend $1.2 trillion this year, while international travelers are expected to contribute $173 billion. However, international inbound travel is forecast to drop 6.3% for the first time since 2020, dropping 6.3% from 72.4 million visitors in 2024 to 67.9 million in 2025. Earlier this year, the global tourism organization also projected a $12.5 billion loss in international spending for the U.S. in 2025.
International visitors make travel America’s largest services export. The association emphasized that travel not only generates $2.9 trillion for GDP and provides nearly one in 10 U.S. jobs, but also fosters social cohesion, strengthens cultural understanding and boosts health, resilience and lifelong learning.
“The latest forecast signals both opportunity and warning for America’s travel economy,” the association said. “While domestic travel is holding steady, the continued decline in international visitors threatens billions in spending and thousands of jobs. The next decade can be one of extraordinary growth, but only if we act decisively. Outdated systems, excessive visa wait times and new travel deterrents are driving global visitors elsewhere. The U.S. must lead by modernizing travel infrastructure, streamlining entry processes and sending a clear message: America is open for business.”
In addition, earlier this week, U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman sent a letter to Congressional leaders stressing the detrimental impact the government shutdown could have on the travel economy, including an additional $1 billion weekly loss.
“A shutdown is a wholly preventable blow to America’s travel economy — costing $1 billion every week,” said Freeman. “The longer a shutdown drags on, the more likely we are to see longer TSA lines, flight delays and cancellations, national parks in disrepair and unnecessary delays in modernizing travel infrastructure.”
Survey data from Ipsos shows Americans agree: 60% say they would cancel or avoid trips by air in the event of a shutdown, 81% agree shutdowns hurt the economy, 86% express the inconvenience to air travelers and nearly 88% believe both parties in Congress should work together to prevent a shutdown.
“Nearly nine in 10 Americans agree Congress should work together to prevent a shutdown,” Freeman said. “Americans deserve better.”
